:::::::::: 글로벌번역통역센터 ::::::::::
 
 



 
 
> 고객지원센터 > News & Notice
ADMIN 2018. 12. 17.  
LIST  MODIFY  DELETE  WRITE  REPLY 
   제목: Hong Kong's Economy Gets Stuck Between U.S.-China Trade War


Hong Kong's Economy Gets Stuck Between U.S.-China Trade War

By Eric Lam

October 5, 2018



Former colony’s export profile dominated by China conduit role


Economists downgrading growth outlook as trade conflict grinds


Hong Kong has long marketed itself as the gateway into China for foreign businesses, especially the U.S. With a trade war now raging between the world’s two largest economies, that’s precisely the problem.



Having shifted its factories across the border decades ago to benefit from cheaper labor, Hong Kong now finds its role as a trade conduit to be a source of concern. Products destined for China and the U.S. passing through the city accounted for almost 10 percent of its roughly $500 billion in exports last year, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.


The import-export business overall represents almost a fifth of the domestic economy, and worsening sentiment on the mainland can spill over into the former British colony in other ways -- most obviously tourism spending. Add the trade war threat to an already-inflated property market, and Hong Kong’s economy begins to look fragile.
Note: re-exports are classified as goods passing through Hong Kong without going through any material manufacturing changes.




“These are the two biggest traders in the world, and they trade through us with each other,” said Nicholas Kwan, director of research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. “So when they are fighting, a lot of intermediaries get hurt, and we are the most prominent intermediary between these two.”



The immediate effect of the worsening of the trade conflict this year is hard to disentangle from already-slowing activity, but it’s clear that metrics such as container throughput will continue to suffer if the tariff war drags on.






Gross domestic product grew 3.5 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, compared with a revised 4.6 percent in the first, according to government data. Looking forward, the Nikkei Hong Kong purchasing managers’ index slipped further into contraction territory in September.

The HKTDC cut its forecast for Hong Kong’s 2018 export growth to 3 percent from 6 percent after its latest quarterly export sentiment index reading for September plunged a record amount, from an expansionary 54.1 in the second quarter to 35.8 for the third. Readings below 50 indicate a majority of exporters expect contracting shipments.




The results underscore the gloom surrounding Hong Kong’s trade market, especially in the key electronics segment, which suffered the biggest overall drop to 35.4 from 55.2 in the prior quarter, the report said. The sector makes up almost 70 percent of total merchandise exports.




The trade woes come at a tricky time as the city navigates the impact of a slowing economy in China while borrowing costs are likely to rise due to monetary policy being tied to a hiking Federal Reserve thanks to the city’s currency peg.

“We cannot rely on monetary policy,” said Iris Pang, Greater China economist with ING Bank NV in Hong Kong. “We have to rely on fiscal stimulus, and now is the right time for the Hong Kong government to spend its fiscal money.”

Hong Kong’s Dilemma Is What to Do With Its Massive Cash Pile

Pang cut her 2018 economic growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.6 percent from 4.9 percent in August due to the trade war, and may slash her 2019 and 2020 targets as well if the conflict continues, she said. Pang currently forecasts 2.6 percent growth next year and 2.5 percent in 2020. Standard Chartered Bank and United Overseas Bank have also lowered their forecasts for this year.

Selected articles from Bloomberg

LIST  MODIFY  DELETE  WRITE  REPLY 





전체글 목록 2018. 12. 17.  전체글: 706  방문수: 2191407
 공지  정규직,계약직,프리랜서직 모집 
706   Central bank joins wage worries
705   Convertible laptops attracting consumer interest in Korea
704   OPEC Agrees to Larger-Than-Expected Output Cut With Allies, Delegates Say
703   The Biggest Political Risks to the World Economy in 2019
702   Stocks Decline Before G-20; Treasuries Edge Higher: Markets Wrap
701   What Oil at $50 a Barrel Means for the World Economy
700   Lion Air Crash Report Due Next Week, Boeing 737 Max in Focus
699   Goldman Says It's Time for Equity Investors to Boost Their Cash
698   Citigroup Sees U.S. Dollar Topping Out in 2019
697   Asia Stocks Drop as Oil Seeks Floor; Pound Rises: Markets Wrap
696   These Products Show How Hard It뭠l Be to Beat China in Trade War
695   LG Chem hires 3M vice chair as new head
694   JP Morgan, Citibank under probe over alleged forex rigging
693   Samsung’s Q3 profit up 20.9%
692   Johnson Controls seeks more building management deals
691   Google taxes in focus as audit raises issues
690   PewDiePie is YouTube뭩 most-subscribed channel. He뭩 about to be dethroned.
689   Amazon met with ICE officials over facial-recognition system that could identify immigrants
688   Inflation Creep Is Real, Morgan Stanley Says
687   Tencent Faces New Rivals Just as It Starts to Get Anti-Social 
686   Paul Allen, Billionaire Who Co-Founded Microsoft, Dies at 65 
685   World’s Largest Car Market Faces Historic Drop 
684   Nordhaus, Romer Win 2018 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 
683   Hong Kong's Economy Gets Stuck Between U.S.-China Trade War 
682   Indonesia's Weak Currency a Source of Strength, World Bank Says 
681   Jack Ma Cedes Alibaba Licenses. Investors Won’t Get Control 
680   After Settling With SEC, Musk Tries to Answer Other Question 
679   Hacker to Live-Stream Attack on Zuckerberg뭩 Facebook Page 
678   iPhone XS Buyers Undeterred by Eye-Watering Prices, Few Upgrades 
677   Stocks Advance as Treasuries Steady; Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap 
RELOAD VIEW DEL WRITE
1 [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] 24